With tensions between rivals China and United States of America continuing to escalate over the South China Sea issue, a World War 3 seems to be inevitable as an aggressive China refuses to back down.
While for the United States, the South China Sea conflict is geopolitical as it wants to enforce the long standing international laws as regards to freedom of navigation, China has its national pride at stake. According to CNBC?s Seema Mody, the Chinese are less likely to back down on their territorial claims as they continue to express strong emotion over painful death and misery owing to Japanese invasion in 1930s. With their personal emotion attached to South China Sea, the Chinese will not back down easily from the hardline approach they have taken on the South China Sea.
In fact, losing the South China Sea territory on President Xi Jinping?s watch would seriously damage his popularity among Chinese citizens. So the Chinese military is making an aggressive and bold approach as regards to their territorial claims. In addition, with China?s ailing economy Beijing is under immense pressure from the people which only fuels far more dangerous reactions from the Chinese.
There are speculations that China is already evaluating sending nuclear submarines to the region.
“All activity (so far), whether military actions, harassing the fishing boats of other countries, or constructing artificial islands, has been undertaken in such a way as to keep tensions just below the threshold that would trigger outright interstate war,” said Andrew Scobell, senior political scientist and author of China’s Search for Security.
If the Chinese up their ante by sending in nuclear submarines conflicts with number of nations involved in the dispute with Beijing will surely arise. Such conflicts may finally fuel enough reactions from several nations such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Japan to come together to start a war against Beijing. With the involvement of United States, the Russians might too intervene to support their communist ally and thus will begin a world war 3.
Meanwhile, with the upcoming decision for Philippines appeal against China in International Court of Arbitration in Hague, tensions could rise further. If it results in an adverse outcome for China, experts suggest it will push Beijing regime to “declare an ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) in the South China Sea – just as it did in the East China Sea back in November 2013.?
This would essentially mean China drawing lines in the air mirroring the same maritime lines it has drawn in the South China Sea waters below. With United States continuing to run covert missions in the area it would force Washington to take significant decision as regards to that.?And with number of nations involved in the conflict it certainly once again risks the world into a possible thermonuclear war.